主题：摩根斯坦利评价长电

Yangtze Power:Hydropower Giant with Attractive Valuation, OW
Upgrade to OW: We raise our earnings forecast toincorporate the contribution of the 18 injected units. Withhigher earnings estimates, a 15% sell-off since therestructuring (vs a 9% rise in the market) and anexpected 3%+dividend, we move to OW. This is anattractive business: as the world’s largest hydropowerplayer, CYP’s 2010 unit operating cost was only 42% ofthe average of hydropower and 10% of thermal playersin China. At 16x 2011E and 15x 2012E EPS vs. a peergroup average of 25x and 21x, respectively, valuationlooks attractive.

Coming asset injection to ensure long-term growth:Yangtze’s parent, the Three Gorges Group, plans tobuild another four large hydropower stations along theJinsha River, with total capacity twice that of Yangtze’send-2010 installed capacity of 21 GW. Of these, theXiangjiaba and Xiluodu stations have begunconstruction and are due to be completed by 2015. Theparent company has promised to inject these assets,which would ensure Yangtze’s long-term potential.

Tariff with upside potential: CYP’s tariff isbenchmarked to the average provincial on-grid tariff,which increased by 5.2% CAGR from 2006-09 withoutany corresponding tariff hike for TG units. As coal priceincreases lead to a rising tariff benchmark, we seegreater scope for CYP to ask for a rise in its tariff.

What is new: CYP’s 2010 & 1Q11 results were robust,with net profit of Rmb8.2bn in 2010 and Rmb648mn in1Q11, up by 78% and 445% YoY. The managementsbought ~203k shares in March, reflecting theirconfidence in the name. We expect the potential assetinjection, tariff hike and successful penetration into newbusinesses to serve as share price catalysts.


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水电巨人估值有吸引力；
摩根提升对长电的赢利预期，以反映18台机组注入的贡献。重组后股价跌15%（市场占有率却上升9%），3%以上的分红，评级提升为持有。这是具吸引力的交易，长电成本在中国只有平均水电成本的42%，火电成本的10%，其11年和12年PE只有16和15倍，而同类公司平均PE则分别高达25和21倍。
母公司承诺上游水电资产，未来发展有保障......
电价有上升潜力：三峡电价以售电省价的平均上网电价为基准，这一电价近年（06-09年）上涨了5.2%，而长电电价未涨。随着煤价上涨，长电电价上涨空间更大。
另外，长电10年及11年首季业绩坚实，同比分别增长了 78% 和 445%。管理层买了20.3万股，反映了管理的信心。我们相信，资产注入、提价及成功进入新业务将成为股价上涨的催化剂。

[IMG]http://img.taoguba.com.cn/img/2011/05/14/HGDL7XI3AHCB.jpg[/IMG]

精辟！！！楼上的顶一个

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